Modelling Macro Supply-Chain Fragility in India from Freight-Capacity Mismatch and Network Overload

Abstract

India’s force chains parade growing macro- position fragility driven by patient freight- capacity mismatch and transportation network cargo. This paper develops a network- predicated modelling frame to quantify how imbalances between surging freight demand( projected to reach 15 – 16 trillion tonne- km by 2050) and constrained modal capacities particularly road dominance at 65 of freight amplify slinging disruptions Using amulet- subcaste graph model integrating profitable input- affair liaison with transport structure capacities, we pretend cargo scripts on pivotal corridors( e.g., Golden Quadrilateral and devoted Freight Corridors). Results indicate that indeed moderate demand shocks (10 – 15 spikes frome- commerce or geopolitical events) can spark 20 – 40 affair losses in downstream sectors due to propagation through overfilled bumps. Policy simulations show that accelerating modal shift to rail (via DFCs) and multimodal logistics demesne could reduce fragility pointers by 35 – 50. The study underscores the need for intertwined structure planning under enterprise like Gati Shakti and PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan to make rigidity. Findings contribute to the literature on force- chain network fragility in arising husbandry and offer practicable perceptivity for India’s logistics bring reduction target (presently 797 of GDP).

Introduction

India’s rapidly growing economy depends heavily on an efficient freight transportation system, yet its logistics network remains dominated by road transport, leading to capacity mismatches, congestion, overloading, and high logistics costs. Rail infrastructure, despite Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) expansions, continues to face heavy utilization, while inland waterways and coastal shipping remain underutilized. These imbalances increase supply chain fragility, where localized transport disruptions can trigger widespread economic losses, as demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic and Red Sea crisis. Existing studies emphasize network vulnerabilities, freight inefficiencies, and the need for multimodal transport, but few quantitatively assess macroeconomic fragility caused by freight-capacity mismatches in India.

The proposed study develops a multi-layer freight network model integrating road, rail, and water transport with complex network theory to simulate freight flow and cascading failures. Using Monte Carlo simulations and real Indian freight data, the model evaluates supply chain fragility under current conditions and policy interventions. Results show that a 15% demand shock can cause cascading failures across 25–30% of transport nodes, resulting in an average 28% output loss in key sectors such as electronics, machinery, and agriculture, with the Mumbai–Delhi corridor identified as the most critical bottleneck. Policy measures such as expanding Dedicated Freight Corridors, improving multimodal integration, optimizing truck operations, and implementing digital logistics platforms significantly reduce congestion and network fragility, lowering output losses by nearly 50%. The study concludes that strengthening multimodal freight infrastructure, enhancing network resilience, and improving logistics efficiency are essential for reducing supply chain risks and supporting India's long-term economic growth.

Conclusion

Freight- capacity mismatch and network cargo render India’s macro force chains fragile, hanging Viksit Bharat pretensions. The proposed model demonstrates quantifiable risks and the high returns from modal shift, structure standardization, and digital integration.

References

[1] Elliott, M., Golub, B., & Leduc, M. V. (2020). Supply network formation and fragility. American Economic Review. [2] NITI Aayog & RMI. (2021). Fast Tracking Freight in India. https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2021-06/FreightReportNationalLevel.pdf. [3] NITI Aayog. (2023). Goods on the Move. [4] Qu, C., et al. (2024). Vulnerability evolution of a container shipping network. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. [5] Sahu, P. K., et al. (2022). Freight traffic impacts and logistics inefficiencies in India. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives. [6] Sarkar, B. D. (2025). Resilient or fragile? Modelling economic disruptions in India’s electronics sector. Research in Transportation Business & Management. [7] Additional sources: DPIIT Logistics Cost Assessment (2025), Indian Railways Yearbook (2023–24), MoRTH Basic Road Statistics.

Copyright

Copyright © 2026 Rithune S V, Praveen Kumar A, Praveen Kumar A, Dr. Shetty Deepa Thangam Geeta. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.